TAMPA (FOX 13) - The 2016 hurricane season is barely 24 hours old, but we're already talking about forecast models and tropical development now that a low-pressure system could bring heavy rain to Florida next week.
Forecasters say there's now a 40-percent chance of a tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico within the next five days. Long-range forecast models move the system east over the Florida peninsula after coming ashore over the state's west coast as anything from a disorganized wave to a tropical storm.
The Gulf of Mexico is already warm enough to support tropical development, but forecasters expect wind shear to remain high, working against the system's development.
"Regardless of tropical development, it appears that a slug of deep tropical moisture will be headed toward Florida in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe," FOX 13 meteorologist Mike Bennett blogged.
Bennett says the Bay Area could see several inches of rain from the system, raising the danger of localized flooding.