Donalds, Jolly in dead heat for Florida governor: Poll

TAMPA, Fla. - Florida's race for governor is entering its final two weeks essentially tied, according to a new statewide poll released Wednesday that also shows sharp divisions over some of the biggest issues facing voters.

Florida governor race polling

By the numbers:

The University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab found 49% of likely voters support Republican Byron Donalds, while 47% support Democrat David Jolly.

Another 4% are undecided.

The difference between the candidates is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points.

The poll surveyed 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters from Oct. 12 through Oct. 19.

The new numbers show the governor's race has tightened since UNF last surveyed Florida voters.

In July, Donalds led Jolly by five percentage points. That advantage has now fallen to two.

"Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race, similar to the race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which was won by less than a percentage point," said Dr. Sean Freeder, UNF Public Opinion Research Lab faculty director and political science professor. "Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising."

Freeder attributed much of the increased competitiveness to national political forces, noting that midterm elections are often difficult for the party that controls the White House.

There are also signs Jolly is attracting support outside the Democratic Party.

The poll found 11% of registered Republicans support Jolly, while 5% of registered Democrats support Donalds.

Among voters registered with no party affiliation or another party, Jolly leads Donalds 55% to 38%.

What they're saying:

The poll also asked voters which candidate they trust more on three issues affecting Floridians: affordability and the cost of living, property insurance and data centers.

On affordability, voters are nearly evenly divided.

Forty-three percent said they trust Jolly more, compared with 42% who chose Donalds.

Donalds has a larger advantage on property insurance. Forty-three percent said they trust Donalds more on that issue, compared with 38% for Jolly.

The numbers flip on data centers, an issue that has increasingly become part of the candidates' campaign messages.

Forty-one percent said they trust Jolly more on data centers, compared with 37% for Donalds.

Jolly has called for a pause on new data centers in Florida and criticized Donalds over support from the industry and its backers.

Donalds, meanwhile, has sought to portray Jolly, a former Republican congressman, as a liberal who would fill his administration with Democrats further to the left.

Donalds has an enthusiasm advantage

While the overall race is close, the poll finds Donalds' supporters are more likely to describe their support as strong.

Among Donalds voters, 77% said they strongly support him and 18% said they support him somewhat.

Among Jolly voters, 67% said they strongly support him and 24% said somewhat.

"Both Donalds and Moody enjoy a small but real enthusiasm gap among their voters," Freeder said.

That could become increasingly important as the campaigns turn their attention from persuading voters to getting their supporters to cast ballots.

National attention turns to Florida

Big picture view:

The tightening race is also attracting more national attention.

Jolly has publicly called for additional financial support from national Democrats as he tries to compete with Donalds' fundraising advantage.

National Democrats have now responded with a $1 million contribution to support Jolly.

Former President Bill Clinton also campaigned with Jolly in Hollywood, Florida, this week.

Donalds is taking his campaign through the Tampa Bay region Thursday. His campaign lists an 8:30 a.m. event in Sarasota, followed by a noon stop in Pasco County and a 3:30 p.m. event in Polk County.

With Election Day 13 days away, UNF's polling suggests turnout could ultimately determine which candidate comes out ahead.

"Polling ultimately can't tell us with certainty what turnout will end up looking like," Freeder said.

He said particularly strong Democratic turnout could make Jolly slightly favored, while stronger-than-expected Republican enthusiasm could give Donalds a more comfortable victory.

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