Gov. Ron DeSantis gains ground in 2028 prediction markets as questions grow about his next move

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Gov. Ron DeSantis is drawing renewed attention as a potential 2028 presidential contender as he prepares to leave office in January, with prediction markets showing increased interest and news reports raising questions about his political plans.

DeSantis has not announced another campaign. He disputes reporting that he has contacted people about running, while continuing to criticize Republicans' performance in last week's midterm elections.

The backstory:

What do prediction markets show?

DeSantis's standing has improved sharply on Kalshi, where traders buy and sell contracts based on whether they expect an event to happen.

In daily Republican nomination data reviewed by FOX 13, his implied probability rises from about 4% before Election Day to roughly 16% in an observation timestamped Wednesday evening Eastern time.

Over that period, Secretary of State Marco Rubio's price falls from about 23% to roughly 16%, putting the two much closer together. Vice President JD Vance remains ahead at about 35%.

Florida Politics reports DeSantis briefly moved ahead of Rubio Wednesday afternoon, 17% to 16%. That crossover does not appear in the daily observations reviewed by FOX 13, which show DeSantis remaining third.

Prices fluctuate throughout the day. They reflect traders' expectations, rather than voter preferences measured through a poll.

The market concerns the Republican nomination, which is separate from betting on who wins the presidency.

What has DeSantis said about running?

What they're saying:

DeSantis disputes a Washington Post report that he has contacted a political consultant about another presidential bid.

"I have not reached out to anybody about running for anything," DeSantis wrote on X.

Speaking Saturday at the University of Notre Dame, he again rejected the account, saying he had not called anyone and accusing the newspaper of relying on gossip.

Those statements challenge reporting about campaign preparations. They do not amount to a pledge against running in 2028.

During an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, DeSantis said he had not planned anything and described the political environment as uncertain.

He has also used recent appearances to criticize his party's national performance.

"This was a rejection of Republicans in Washington. And Democrats just happened to be the beneficiary," DeSantis said following the election.

What could come after the governor's office?

Timeline:

DeSantis leaves office Jan. 5, when Governor-elect Byron Donalds takes over.

NBC News reports DeSantis is discussing launching a conservative think tank. Such an organization could give him a way to develop policy proposals and maintain a national presence outside elected office.

A think tank would not itself establish that he is running for president. DeSantis has not publicly announced a campaign.

What would another presidential bid face?

DeSantis's unsuccessful 2024 campaign remains a central question for any comeback.

UCF Associate Lecturer of Political Science John Hanley says DeSantis would have to demonstrate that his success in Florida can translate to a different electorate.

"Whether that allows him to, you know, translate that into other contexts with different voters, we haven't yet seen because the 2024 campaign against Trump was so unsuccessful," Hanley said.

Hanley notes that DeSantis has governed with a Republican-controlled legislature, a different environment from the one a president could face in Washington.

DeSantis, meanwhile, says he still has work to finish before leaving Tallahassee.

"I've still got more work to do," he said. "We'll work till the lights are out."