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Tampa Weather | Thursday Morning Forecast
Fox 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says there is a coastal flood watch Thursday with rainy conditions continuing as Isaias moves in the Gulf. The high today is 83 degrees.
TAMPA, Fla. - Hurricane Isaias is moving across the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning and is forecast to strengthen before making landfall along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
Gulf Coast hurricane forecast
What we know:
Hurricane Isaias formed late Wednesday night in the Gulf. As of 5 a.m. on Thursday, the storm was located 170 miles northwest of Progresso, Mexico, and 420 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The hurricane is moving east-northeast at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday as the system moves north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Storm surge and wind threats
By the numbers:
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
The system is forecast to bring 3 to 7 inches of rain across the central Gulf Coast, with localized totals up to 10 inches from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Surrounding areas across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley could see 1 to 3 inches of rain.
As it moves closer toward the Northern Gulf Coast, it will start to be torn apart by very strong wind shear. That said, it will still be very strong as it reaches the coast.
Coastal warnings and watches
What's next:
A turn toward the northeast is expected later Thursday, followed by a turn northward on Friday. The storm is expected to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.
Even the Bay Area will experience higher than normal tides on Friday 1-3' above normal high tide. One other area of concern is that as Isaias makes landfall and starts to change its structure, drier air will help to trigger severe weather. Many of these outer feeder bands will not only produce heavy rain, but also have the potential for tornadoes for Northern Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.
A hurricane warning is active from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Florida. A storm surge warning covers the area from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, Florida.
Unconfirmed storm impacts
What we don't know:
Officials have not yet confirmed the exact peak surge water heights for specific coastal communities along the landfall path.
The precise timing and location of potential flash flooding or river flooding will depend on localized rainfall totals over the weekend.
The Source: The information in this story was gathered from official public advisories and forecast updates issued by the National Hurricane Center.