Moffitt researchers develop algorithm to predict cancer cell evolution

TAMPA, Fla - Researchers at Moffitt Cancer Center have developed a new tool to predict how cancer cells evolve. By focusing on chromosome configuration, they said their findings show tumors follow measurable rules. 

Using a new algorithm called ALFA-K, scientists can now predict how cancer cells will respond to therapies, offering a potential roadmap for more effective, personalized treatments.

What we know:

At the center of this research is the study of chromosomes, which are the large packets of DNA that hold genes.

Healthy cells grow and divide within the human body in a controlled manner. But, that’s not the case with cancer cells: When tumors grow, their cells can gain or lose entire chromosomes. 

This creates a massive shift in the cell's genetic makeup all at once, helping the tumor adapt and survive.

"The fact that [cancer cells] are gaining and losing so many genes at the same time makes it kind of tricky to study that process, kind of try and figure out what's going on," Dr. Richard Beck, a research scientist in Moffitt Cancer Center’s Integrated Mathematical Oncology Department, told FOX 13. "So, the algorithm that we've developed here is a means to try and sort of simplify some of that complexity and make predictions about what kinds of cells are going to do after they gain and lose entire chromosomes."

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Dig deeper:

The tool works by assigning a "fitness score" to different types of cancer cells. In the world of oncology, a "fitness score" simply refers to how quickly a cell is dividing. 

"And using these fitness scores, we can try and predict how that cancer cell will fare in a sort of competition against other cancer cells. Because we like to think of cancer as a competition between different mutations or cancer clones. And one thing that we would like to know is which cancer cells are going to win," Beck added. 

As tumors grow, their cells are constantly copying and dividing their DNA, which can create a mix of cancer cells with different chromosome combinations inside the same tumor. As a result, researchers believe ALFA-K will be able to help when it comes to treatment decisions. 

"For example, a treatment regime that you would apply, we might be able to predict sort of which cells might do well and which cells might do less well under that treatment condition. So that could ideally help us make more informed decisions about what the cancer's going to do next after a certain treatment might be applied," Beck said. 

What's next:

When asked what the main question he and his team set out to answer, he replied: "Is this cancer, in some sense, predictable?"

FOX 13 asked if Beck believes the team answered that question. 

"Yeah, so we developed this tool using cells grown in dishes and also in experiments in mice. And there, at least, we were able to show that we were able to make some predictions that were ultimately validated. So I think yes, but then the caveat is, that we would need to, in future work, try and bring those predictions to real patients," Beck said. 

 Moffitt researchers say the long-term goal is "evolution-aware cancer therapy," an approach that aims to anticipate how tumors will change instead of just reacting after they have already become resistant to treatment. 

By the numbers:

The American Cancer Society predicts there will be 5,800 new cancer diagnoses every day this year, according to the organization’s latest annual report released in January. 

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It also found that seven in 10 people will now survive their cancer by five years or more. 

But, new stats also showcase common cancers – like breast, prostate, liver (female), melanoma (female), and pancreas – continue to increase.