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Tampa's weather and latest on very active tropics
FOX 13 chief meteorologist Paul Dellegatto has the weekend forecast and the formation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.
TAMPA - FOX 13 meteorologists are watching three systems in the tropics — Gabrielle, the newly formed Hurricane Humberto and now Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is expected to become Imelda.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to become a tropical storm over the weekend, prompting tropical storm warnings for the Bahamas. According to FOX 13 meteorologist Nash Rhodes, the system should parallel the east coast of Florida before possibly making landfall early next week.
The system will likely strengthen into a hurricane by Monday afternoon, Rhodes said.
The east coast of Florida should monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, but it's unlikely to receive significant impacts from the system. Rhodes said this also won't cause meaningful impacts on the Tampa Bay or Florida's Gulf coast.
Humberto became a hurricane early Friday morning, and Rhodes said it is now a major Category 3 hurricane. Humberto is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane early Monday morning as it makes a turn toward the north, passing west of Bermuda, but well east of the United States.
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FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg explained that the issue is not Hurricane Humberto, but how close it will get to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.
Some of the drier air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere behind a weak front combined with a north wind will shift the winds of future Imelda as it runs parallel to Florida on Sunday and into Monday, giving us a north wind and shutting down any chances of rain.
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"I wish it was going to bring in a tremendous amount of dry air," Osterberg said. "But, it is going to lower the rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday by 10 percent."
Osterberg explained that Imelda is expected to travel parallel to Florida, running through the Bahamas and gets up to the Carolina coast and that’s where the models begin to differ.
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Some models bring Imelda onshore, then offshore and then back onshore.
Other models barrel Imelda straight through the Carolinas and other models, because Hurricane Humberto will be close enough, tend to pinwheel it around a common point, known as the Fujiwhara Effect.
He said that it is rare for this to happen in the Atlantic, but it would cause Humberto to move north as Imelda would move southeast and if that happens, Imelda would get pulled out to sea.
"So, there is no definitive solution to future Imelda right now, but it’s still just a tropical wave and not even a named storm, so another 24 -36 hours will probably tell the tale," Osterberg stated. "There are no models and no indication that it is going to going into he east coast of Florida, but we will have high surf and high rip currents, which is typical when a storm passes to the east of our state."
The Source: This story was written with information from FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg's forecast and the National Hurricane Center.