Thanksgiving weather forecast: What to expect in Tampa Bay?

TAMPA, Fla. - With Thanksgiving still several weeks away, here's what historical climate averages and NOAA's latest monthly weather outlook can tell us about the weather pattern leading into the holiday.

What is the typical weather in Tampa Bay for Thanksgiving?

Big picture view:

November is one of the driest months of the year in Tampa Bay, as the region transitions away from its summer rainy season. Tampa averages just over an inch of rain for the entire month, in comparison to the 9+ inches during rainy season. This is typically our driest month of the season.

Afternoon temperatures are generally comfortable, and humidity is much more tolerable. Based on NOAA’s 1991–2020 climate normals, Tampa International Airport has an average November high of about 79°F and an average low of about 61°F.

What does NOAA’s November outlook say?

What they're saying:

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks that show whether temperatures and precipitation are more likely to be above, near or below their historical averages. These outlooks describe broad climate patterns rather than a day-by-day weather forecast.

While the latest outlook for November 2026 favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States and along both coasts, the temperature signal is less consistent across the southern United States. There is a weak-to-moderate signal for above-normal conditions extending toward the Tampa Bay Area. For Florida, that still means the broader outlook is far from a guarantee of warm weather over Thanksgiving week. Individual cold fronts can still produce significant short-term changes, even during a month that ultimately finishes near or above its seasonal average.

There is a notable signal that we will likely end November with an abnormally high amount of rain. This wet pattern is consistent with what our ongoing El Niño phase in the Pacific Ocean is known to create. However, just like our Temperature Outlook, the monthly outlook cannot determine whether Tampa Bay will see rain on Thanksgiving Day itself. That level of detail will become clearer as the holiday approaches, and shorter-range forecasts become available.

What should Tampa Bay residents expect?

What's next:

For now, historical averages provide the best baseline for holiday planning. Afternoons are usually near 80°F, with mornings in the 60s and relatively low odds of persistent rainfall compared with the summer months. Thanksgiving week in Tampa Bay is typically mild and fairly dry, but the timing of a cold front can make all the difference. For the most accurate forecast for Thanksgiving Day, follow the FOX 13 weather team as the holiday approaches.

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