Holiday spending expected to rise 4.2% as nearly half of Americans start shopping

Published November 12, 2026 6:27 PM EST

Holiday spending is projected to top $1 trillion this year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Holiday retail spending projections

By the numbers:

The National Retail Federation says American consumers are expected to spend 4.2% more this holiday season compared to last year.

Retail leaders say about 43% of shoppers have already started their holiday shopping, with Thanksgiving just two weeks away.

The NRF says holiday spending in November and December is expected to reach more than $1.013 trillion this year.

Walmart Black Friday deals

What we know:

Major retailers like Walmart have already rolled out early Black Friday deals, and the company says more sales are expected at the end of the month.

Workers are gearing up for a surge of in-store and online sales.

With affordability being a major concern, Walmart is also offering a $35 Thanksgiving meal basket, which can feed 10 people.

Holiday shopping delivery options

What you can do:

David Stevens, an Asset Protection Manager at Walmart, encourages customers to shop as early as possible, while stores work to keep the shelves stocked.

"The sooner that you can get in the better, but we try to stay in stock with all the staples throughout the holiday season," he said. "If you can’t make it in the store, we have the delivery option for your home. Free delivery with Walmart Plus members, and then in-store pickup, as well. Order online, pick up at the store, and then we also have express delivery for any last-minute items that you might need you can hit the same day," Stevens said.

The Source: The information in this story was gathered from an interview conducted with a Walmart Asset Protection Manager, as well as holiday spending data provided by the National Retail Federation.

Economy