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Florida researchers look at new hurricane model
The hurricane severity scale used today only measures wind, not storm surge or rainfall. FOX 13's Jennifer Kveglis spoke with researchers trying to change that.
Tampa - For decades, the Saffir-Simpson scale has rated hurricanes solely by wind strength, from Category 1 to 5. But researchers say that leaves out the deadliest threats: storm surge and flooding.
A University of South Florida Geosciences professor, Jennifer Collins, worked with a team from a university in The Netherlands to design a new system called the Tropical Cyclone Severity Scale. Unlike the current system, it incorporates three factors: wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Why It Matters:
Collins points to Hurricane Florence in 2018. While it made landfall as a Category 1 storm, its catastrophic flooding and surge caused devastation well beyond what people expected. Collins said, "With our scale, it would have been four for surge and five for rainfall. So we would have given it a Cat 5. If people had heard a Category 5, people who evacuated wouldn't have turned around to come home, they would have stayed away."
The new system even allows for a Category 6, if a storm has multiple extreme hazards. She said, "For instance, if you have two Cat 4's and a Cat 5, we can have a Cat 6. Or if we have two Cat 5's, we can have a Cat 6."
The scale was completed in 2021. Since then, the team gathered survey input that was published this month.
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She said, "We've had 4,000 people be our sample and look at the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Some looked at our scale and those looking at our scale, many of them were really able to identify the main hazard of that hypothetical hurricane."
What's next:
Collins and her team plan to send their proposal to the National Hurricane Center. She says the goal is simple: to give communities a better warning and ultimately save lives.
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The Source: This story is based on interviews with USF Professor of Geosciences Jennifer Collins, FOX 13 meteorologist Nash Rhoades, and reporting by FOX 13's Jennifer Kveglis.