Amendment 3 falls short of passage threshold in new poll

TAMPA, Fla. - Amendment 3 is currently falling well short of the support it would need to pass, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey.

Florida Amendment 3 support

What we know:

The poll found 45% of nearly 1,000 likely voters support the amendment. About 30% oppose it, while 25% remain undecided.

Florida constitutional amendments require at least 60% approval from voters to pass.

The Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police, and the Florida Professional Firefighters oppose the amendment. They warn it could reduce funding for law enforcement and fire rescue and create financial problems for smaller cities and counties.

A new advertising campaign opposing Amendment 3 calls it a "public safety nightmare."

The ad was released by Vote No on 3 Florida Inc. 

Amendment 3 campaign spending

What we don't know:

It is not yet clear whether the poll’s findings will change as voters hear more from both sides of the issue.

Florida Realtors have contributed $10 million to a political committee supporting Amendment 3. More campaign advertising is expected as Election Day approaches.

Homestead exemption proposal

Timeline:

The proposed amendment would increase the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in the first year and up to $250,000 by 2028. It's estimated this would mean $12 billion dollars in cuts to revenues once fully-phased in. 

Governor Ron DeSantis supports Amendment 3 and says concerns about its potential financial impact are overstated.

DeSantis acknowledges some smaller communities could face challenges but says many local governments have room in their budgets to reduce spending.

What they're saying:

"When people say 'Where you gonna get the money? Where you gonna get the money?' We’re not gonna spend the way that it’s been spending and we’re going to have a more reasonable level of spend," DeSantis said in a press conference this week.

The other side:

Opponents, including Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, say there has not been enough financial analysis of the amendment’s potential impact.

"They have no idea what the devastation of Amendment 3 in its current form will be to cities and counties," Judd said during his own press conference this summer. "When you get to some small counties, it's gonna wipe them out."

Local governments rely heavily on property taxes to pay for services, including law enforcement, fire rescue and other public safety programs.

Supporters of Amendment 3 argue local governments should reduce spending and provide property tax relief. Opponents say the measure will leave cities and counties without enough money to maintain essential services.

Florida Amendment 3 vote

What's next:

Voters in November will ultimately decide whether Amendment 3 passes. The measure will need at least 60% approval to become part of the Florida Constitution.

More advertisements supporting and opposing the amendment are expected before Election Day.

Florida