2026 hurricane season: Will below-average storm predictions lower Florida home insurance premiums?

How does insurance look in a below-average season?

It’s felt like homeowners’ insurance rates have only gone up for years, so experts explained to what extent that recent law changes, and if hurricane season predictions influence how much you pay. FOX 13's Briona Arradondo reports.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - It’s felt like homeowners’ insurance rates have only gone up for years, so experts explained to what extent that recent law changes, and if hurricane season predictions influence how much you pay.

Big picture view:

The first 2026 storm predictions are in. On Thursday, Colorado State University forecasters said this year’s hurricane season is slightly below average for the number of storms. But weather experts caution that it’s always subject to change.

"As we've seen the last couple of years, you were expecting normal to busy seasons, we have quiet periods, and even if you have a quiet season overall, you can still have really busy periods," Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said.

Dig deeper:

When a storm hits, your home insurance matters, and insurance experts explain whether a below-average forecast influences how much you pay.

"It really does not because if somebody renews in December, they didn’t renew necessarily to a prediction. What it might do is it could continue to open up guidelines," Jake Holehouse, president of HH Insurance in St. Petersburg, said.

Local perspective:

Holehouse said homeowners’ insurance premiums are dropping anywhere from 10% to 40% as insurers widen coverage guidelines.

"It was just a couple of years ago when if you had a shingle roof that was 12 years old, you were struggling to find homeowners insurance," Holehouse said. "Today, carriers are saying roof[s] can be 20, or actually we had one yesterday that said 25 years now on shingle[s]."

2025’s hurricane season gave Florida a break, and the years with no storm damage claims add up.

"It’s not necessarily year-over-year changes. It’s like five and 10-year forecast changes that really dictate what the reinsurance model rates look like," Holehouse said.

What you can do:

Recent changes to Florida law on home insurance stabilized the market. New companies are coming in, and existing insurers are returning.

"It's important to note that every insurance company has a different underwriting procedure. So one company may rate you differently than the next," Mark Friedlander, the Florida spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute, said.

Experts said it’s worth seeing if your wallet can catch a break.

"If you’re a customer, and you haven’t seen your rate drop on the past 24-month basis, it is absolutely time to call your insurance agent. Ask them if they shopped the market," Holehouse said.

They also recommend homeowners take videos of belongings and get flood insurance.