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Understanding political polling
FOX 13's Craig Patrick reports.
TAMPA, Fla. - Political races are already heating up in 2026 — and so is the flood of polling that will try to predict the outcomes. But, recent elections have reinforced a familiar lesson: Polls can be wrong, sometimes dramatically.
In 2024, several high-profile surveys showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading President Donald Trump late in the race, only for the results to break differently on Election Day.
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Why do some polls miss the mark?
Veteran pollster Matt Towery, whose firm Insider Advantage has ranked among the most accurate in the nation, said many polling errors stem from outdated methods.
Traditional phone-based polling is increasingly unreliable as landlines disappear and voters screen unknown calls. Those who still respond are often more politically engaged — and no longer represent a random slice of the electorate.
Towery also points to what pollsters call the "shy Trump voter" effect, where some voters are reluctant to disclose their true preferences to a live interviewer. That hesitation, he said, has skewed results in multiple election cycles.
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How accurate pollsters adapt
Rather than relying on a single approach, Towery blends multiple methods — including targeted text messaging, online tools and voter panels — to build a more accurate picture.
Panels, once viewed skeptically, have improved in quality and reliability when used carefully alongside other data sources.
The key, Towery said, is not one technique but how different methods are combined and weighted.
Dig deeper:
Even the best poll is only a snapshot in time, though. Towery advised voters and observers to focus on where races stand about six weeks before Election Day — when trends become clearer — while recognizing that momentum can still shift late.
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In fact, very few pollsters conduct intensive battleground polling in the final weeks, when momentum may matter most.
In close races, Towery said the candidate with late momentum often wins — a dynamic that can be difficult to capture with limited late-stage polling.
Big picture view:
Rather than focusing on individual polls, analysts recommend watching polling averages to gauge the overall direction of a race. Towery pointed to aggregated models, such as RealClearPolitics, as among the most consistent performers in recent cycles.
What's next:
Artificial intelligence is beginning to enter the polling space as well, but experts caution that it still lacks a proven track record. It may take several more election cycles before AI plays a significant role in forecasting results.
The Source: This report is based on an interview conducted by FOX 13 Political Editor Craig Patrick with Matt Towery of Insider Advantage, along with a review of national and battleground-state polling data and polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics.