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TAMPA, Fla. - There’s been some online buzz about the very small chance of snow in parts of the Bay Area.
While it remains unlikely, a rare setup known as Gulf-effect snow could give a few coastal locations a slim chance at seeing flurries.
What is Gulf effect snow?
What we know:
Gulf-effect snow occurs when much colder air moves over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf.
That temperature contrast allows warm, moist air to rise and, under just the right conditions, produce narrow bands of snow.
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This is extremely uncommon in Central Florida. It requires a surge of unseasonably cold Arctic air, onshore winds, and a prolonged period of wind over warm Gulf waters that align at the same time.
When could it snow in Tampa?
If anything were to happen, it would be during the coldest part of the upcoming stretch (early Sunday morning). A few flurries, with little to no accumulation, would be most likely right along the coast.
The National Weather Service says there is a narrow window from 11 p.m. on Saturday to 1 a.m. on Sunday when there is a chance of snow to fall.
However, it’s important to note that the vast majority of current forecast models do not predict snow.
Where could it snow in the Bay Area?
Of the small number that do, the signal is mainly limited to coastal areas of Citrus, Hernando, Pinellas and Pasco Counties.
The backstory:
While many in the Bay Area may compare this potential to the infamous 1977 snow event in Tampa, that was notably not a Gulf effect snow event.
It came from an upper-level disturbance (at a much larger scale) that coincided with its own blast of freezing temperatures. That was a far more predictable setup.
What's next:
Regardless, a prolonged blast of cold air is on the way. Overnight lows will dip into the 20s and 30s from Saturday night through much of next week.
The Source: This article was written with information gathered by FOX 13's Nash Rhodes.