Slow-moving Invest 91L struggling to develop

FOX 13 meteorologists tracking Invest 91L: Will it impact Florida?

FOX 13 meteorologist Jim Webber has the latest on Invest 91L and the rest of the tropics.

TAMPA, Fla. - We are still tracking Invest 91L as it drifts across the central tropical Atlantic. The National Weather Service has now dropped its 7-day development odds to 60%.

In the last 24 hours weather model support has dropped substantially, as drier air brought on by Saharan Dust has shrouded the disturbance. This had led to an additional drop of the odds of development over the next two days to 30%.

FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says there's still a lot of time to watch this system because it's moving slowly.

"Even a week from now, it is still going to be east of the Lesser Antilles," Osterberg said. "So we’ve got 10 to 12 days for us to continue to watch."

While many forecast models now dissipate the system, many still develop it into at least a tropical depression as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. These islands will still need to watch the progression of Invest 91L carefully before it possibly reaches the islands by the middle to end of next week.

Long-range models have been shifting farther south, which would bring impacts to the islands in about 7–8 days if that track was to hold – but again, there's still plenty of uncertainty.

Another factor to consider is how quickly the system develops and how strong it becomes. That's because a stronger storm would turn north more quickly while a weaker, disorganized system would continue to track west.

The bottom line: There are still more questions than answers right now.

"It's going to be like stalking a turtle over the Atlantic over the next 10 days or so," Osterberg said.

The disturbance is moving very slowly (less than 10 mph at times) and will give the United States well over a week to monitor it if it forms.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.