Tropical storm likely to develop in Gulf of Mexico, bring rain to Florida

An area of low pressure in the Caribbean is likely to become a tropical storm that will impact Bay Area weather next week. 

As of Friday, it was a disorganized area of cloud cover and showers. However, meteorologists say it will meander over the Yucatan until Monday. Then, it is expected to slide northward and head toward the west coast of Florida

It is unclear where it will make landfall as of right now, but FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says regardless of whether it hits the panhandle, the Big Bend area or the Bay Area, Florida is going to get some much-needed rain.

STAY CONNECTED: Download the free FOX 13 News app for Live SkyTower Radar, forecast videos, and more weather coverage

He says what we don’t want is a tropical development with the winds and organization. 

According to Osterberg, three different computer models show the system becoming a tropical storm as it approaches Florida's west coast. He says the main thing will be rain with the system. 

RELATED: Governor Ron DeSantis orders storm preps as potential system sets sights on Sunshine State

"We’re 13–14 inches of rain below normal," Osterberg explained. "If there is a way we can make up some of this rainfall without the wind we’d be all in, but you get nervous any time a storm is coming in from the southwest through the Caribbean in the heart of hurricane season, you just get a little bit nervous for a quick, quick development."

Osterberg says there will be some wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week as the low is developing and approaching Florida. 

He says the wind shear is key to the forecast because without it, the system could strengthen very quickly, especially as it enters the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. 

The wind shear will likely elongate the storm and temper what it can do as it develops. 

RELATED: Storm supply tax-free holiday begins as potential tropical system heads toward Florida

Osterberg says it is tough to track something that hasn’t developed yet. Once it does develop, he explains that the models will come together, and meteorologists will have a better idea of its projected intensity and where it may make landfall. 

Regardless of whether or not the system develops, Florida will get rain from it.

Regardless of whether or not the system develops, Florida will get rain from it. 

If the system does become a tropical storm, it will be Idalia. 

Stay up to date at