National Hurricane Center tracks 20% development chance in Gulf
TAMPA, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance in the northeastern Gulf that could bring heavy rain and flooding risks to Florida starting Saturday.
Gulf tropical development potential
What we know:
The National Hurricane Center says an area in the Gulf has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, though odds remain at 0% for the next two days. The system is expected to move northeast between Saturday and next Wednesday.
Regardless of whether it organizes, the system will bring tropical downpours and increased moisture across Florida and parts of the Southeast. The low pressure area would form in the northeastern Gulf, where water temperatures are warm, ranging from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Weather factors and storm names
What we don't know:
Officials cannot yet confirm if the disturbance will overcome environmental hurdles like land interaction, wind shear and dry air. Forecasters do not know how close the system will get to Florida before it attempts to organize, which is a major factor in its development.
To become a tropical system, it must develop a defined circulation with organized thunderstorms. If it reaches maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, it will become a tropical storm and be named Bertha.
The Source: The information in this story was gathered from FOX 13’s Valerie Mills and the National Hurricane Center, which detailed the development probabilities and environmental conditions in the Gulf.