When could restrictions ease after COVID-19 vaccines become available to all adults?

TAMPA, Fla. - With COVID-19 vaccines open to all Florida adults next week, public health experts explain what it means for easing pandemic restrictions.

Doctors said April will be a defining month since several states will expand vaccinations for all adults in the coming weeks.

"If we get a really good number of people in their 20s, 30s and 40s vaccinated over the next few weeks, including all others who have not been vaccinated yet, we’re going to see a really big drop in probably sometime in mid to late May," said Dr. Michael Lauzardo, director of the Screen, Test and Protect program at the University of Florida.

Dr. Lauzardo said COVID restrictions will let up once the number of infections drop and cases, hospitalizations and death remain low for a sustained period of time.

"I think the first things that can start to go are rules related to numbers of people in buildings, in establishments," said Lauzardo.

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With sports, teams limited the number of fans for games, and USF Health professor of public health Dr. Jay Wolfson said he expects that to change later this year.

"I think that baseball games for the short term may continue to be checker-boarded but by the end of the summer, they may be open," said Dr. Wolfson. "On international travel, we think things are going to open up quite a bit especially as international organizations require what’s going to become some kind of a vaccine passport. I doubt we’re going to have those in this country."

Public health experts said mask use will be the last restriction to go, and some vulnerable people will likely need to wear them through the end of the year.

"Until and unless we have a larger amount of vaccination, continue to exercise the precautions we’ve had but feel much more comfortable being with your friends and your family and attending events where you are guaranteed that people are safe," said Wolfson.

Experts said local governments should start planning how to handle the return.

"I think science is still guiding us to hang in there just a little bit longer. If we do this right, we can be all the way open, fully open a lot sooner than if we drag out there and say 'I don’t want to do this now,'" said Lauzardo.

Public health experts said the ability to lift restrictions heavily depends on how many people get the vaccine to help build up herd immunity. Scientists said it also hinges on whether another wave of infections grows this summer and prolongs restrictions.