Wind shear and Saharan dust stifle Atlantic tropical development

Published September 16, 2026 6:19 AM EDT

A lone tropical disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic holds a low 30% chance of development as El Niño conditions stifle storm formation.

Quiet Atlantic hurricane season 

What we know:

Strong El Niño conditions are generating hostile wind shear and spreading Saharan dust across the Atlantic's main development region. 

An isolated disturbance sits in the central Atlantic with a 30% chance of forming into a tropical system.

Calm outlook through next week 

What we don't know:

Meteorologists cannot say if tropical activity will remain quiet beyond next Monday. Weather forecasters will continue monitoring the basin closely to ensure no unexpected threats emerge.

The Source: The information in this story was gathered from FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg, who analyzed computer forecast models and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic Ocean.

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