Wind shear and Saharan dust stifle Atlantic tropical development

Published September 16, 2026 6:19 AM EDT

A lone tropical disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic holds a low 30% chance of development as El Niño conditions stifle storm formation.

Quiet Atlantic hurricane season 

What we know:

Strong El Niño conditions are generating hostile wind shear and spreading Saharan dust across the Atlantic's main development region. 

An isolated disturbance sits in the central Atlantic with a 30% chance of forming into a tropical system.

Drier air on the way

A hint (just a hint) of drier air will filter in tonight, and tomorrow. 

Dewpoints (a measurement of surface moisture) will briefly get back to the 60s, but then by the weekend shoot back up to the 70s. 

This will help to lower rain chances for a couple of days, then the steamy rain machine returns this weekend. High temps will still be in the lower 90s.

Calm outlook through next week 

What we don't know:

Meteorologists cannot say if tropical activity will remain quiet beyond next Monday. Weather forecasters will continue monitoring the basin closely to ensure no unexpected threats emerge.

The Source: The information in this story was gathered from FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg, who analyzed computer forecast models and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic Ocean.

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