Storm surge forecasting: USF models predict surge levels days ahead of storms
USF aims to improve storm surge forecasting tools
What if you could know just how bad storm surge will be before the storm hits? It could make a world of difference, and USF researchers are working hard to make it happen. FOX 13's Kylie Jones reports.
TAMPA, Fla. - Researchers at the University of South Florida are using advanced ocean monitoring technology to predict storm surge levels days before a storm hits.
Ocean surge technology
What we know:
Scientists at USF used a storm surge forecasting model during Hurricanes Helene and Milton to predict water levels up to three days ahead of landfall. Storm surge caused most of the catastrophic coastal damage during Hurricane Helene.
Associate Professor Dr. Yonggang Liu said they created three-day and one-day forecast models.
"Particularly the one-day forecast of storm surge, peak water level, almost perfect for several locations at St. Petersburg, Clearwater, even in the Big Bend region," he said.
Underwater data collection
What they're saying:
Researchers say the coastal observation system relies on surface level and underwater technology. Liu says buoys that are deployed collect real-time data about the ocean, including underwater temperatures.
"Our full-size surface buoys, we have five of them," Liu said. "They're in real time right now on the western shelf. And we have gliders put in the water, just like airplanes fly, in the water, and we have a tidal gauge all around the northern Gulf Coast and entire Florida coast."
Researchers say the gliders collect data about water temperatures and salinity, which can help predict the path and intensity of a storm.
"To what extent this storm surge could be, and what kind of consequences, you can imagine, for a different two meters or three meters storm surge, their consequences are different," Liu said.
USF says one of its submersible vehicles was in the path of Hurricane Helene.
Storm preparation goals
Big picture view:
USF researchers aim to provide detailed information to help communities prepare as best they can and ultimately, protect property and save lives.
What's next:
These forecasting models aren't designed to replace official forecasts and models from national weather agencies, but to act as another tool to help residents.
Researchers say you can find information about storm surge prediction models and water levels here.
The Source: The information in this story was gathered from an interview conducted with University of South Florida Associate Professor Dr. Yonggang Liu and information from USF about coastal storm surge forecasting models.