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Tracking a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf

By
FOX 13 News
Tropical Forecast
Published October 4, 2026 7:58 PM EDT
Published October 4, 2026 7:58 PM EDT
article

The Brief

    • Forecasters are tracking a broad area of low pressure that could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
    • The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or stronger within seven days.
    • Strong upper-level winds and a stalled front could hamper development, though warm ocean waters may help it organize.

TAMPA, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on the southwestern Gulf. We could see a broad area of low pressure get going over the next few days, but for now, the NHC gives it a 40% chance of it becoming a tropical depression or stronger over the next 7 days.

Southwestern Gulf disturbance

Dig deeper:

There are several hurdles for this to form. It would have to develop along a stalled front, and strong winds higher up in the atmosphere could make it difficult for the system to organize.

Weather models that develop the system, have it initially form in an area of very warm water and lower wind shear. While development is still uncertain, anything that forms could eventually bring impacts to the northern Gulf. At the moment, it’s too early in the forecast process to speculate on exactly where that would be.

The Source: The information in this story was gathered from National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlooks and atmospheric weather forecast models. 

Tropical Forecast