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National Hurricane Center eyes area of disturbed weather moving into Bay of Campeche

By and FOX 13 News Staff
Published  June 26, 2025 9:34pm EDT
Hurricanes
FOX 13 News

The Brief

    • Meteorologists are watching an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
    • The National Hurricane Center says it has a 20% chance of developing over the next week and models show it moving west toward Mexico. 
    • The next name on the 2025 hurricane list is Barry, but as of now, there is no indication it will become a named storm. 

TAMPA, Fla. - As the 2025 hurricane season gets underway, meteorologists are keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 

FOX 13 Meteorologist Nash Rhodes says after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, a cluster of thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea will have a chance of developing in the Bay of Campeche. 

The National Hurricane Center says the disturbance has a 20% chance of forming within the next week. However, those chances will likely rise if the system remains over water. 

Why is Bay of Campeche important?

According to FOX Weather, the Bay of Campeche is known for rapid spin-ups of tropical cyclones due to warm sea surface temperatures and favorable terrain, but several factors are working against significant development in this case.

Forecast models and the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that environmental conditions will likely inhibit tropical cyclone formation.

Will the tropical disturbance impact Florida? 

What's next:

Rhodes says that most weather models that show the system developing keep it moving west toward Mexico without any impact on Florida. 

The next name on the 2025 hurricane list is Barry, but there are no indications as of now that a named storm will form in the immediate future. 

The Source: This story was written with information gathered by FOX 13 Meteorologist Nash Rhodes and FOX Weather. 

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