Tropical Depression Two expected to become tropical storm Monday

TAMPA, Fla. - Tropical Depression Two continues to organize in the Gulf and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later Monday as it tracks near Florida's northern Gulf Coast over the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the depression was centered around 110 nautical miles south of Panama City early Monday. The system was nearly stationary with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (25 knots) and higher gusts.

Gulf tropical storm development

What we know:

As of the latest NHC advisory, Tropical Depression Two had a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars. Peak seas of 8 feet were occurring in the storm's northeastern quadrant, where fresh to strong winds were also being seen.

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms continue across portions of the eastern Gulf as the system gradually becomes better organized.

Forecasters expect the depression to begin moving slowly toward the northwest or north-northwest during the next day before turning toward the west-northwest or west later in the forecast.

On its current forecast track, the center is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days.

Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the National Hurricane Center says the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later Monday.

Bay Area impacts

Local perspective:

For the Bay Area, the overall forecast has changed very little.

The NHC continues to expect the storm to remain well north of our region, limiting significant local impacts. The main concern remains periods of showers and thunderstorms through early this week before rain chances gradually decrease as the system moves away.

The biggest impact along Florida's Gulf Coast will be at the beaches.

Swells generated by Tropical Depression Two are already affecting portions of the Florida Gulf Coast and are expected to spread westward during the week.

Florida beach hazards

What you can do:

The NHC warns those swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, even in areas that do not experience the center of the storm.

Beachgoers are encouraged to use caution, pay attention to local beach flags and avoid entering the water if dangerous surf or rip currents are present.

Weekly weather outlook

What's next:

Additional strengthening is expected over the next day as Tropical Depression Two moves near the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecasters will continue monitoring the system's track and intensity, though the greatest forecast uncertainty remains how much the storm strengthens once it begins moving westward along the Gulf Coast.

For the Bay Area, forecasters continue to expect mainly increased rain chances and hazardous beach conditions rather than significant wind impacts.

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