Special election on Tuesday will test whether national political winds reach Florida

TAMPA, Fla. - Tuesday is a special election day for 300,000 voters in Florida's Senate District 14. 

That's the western half of Hillsborough County.               

It's an open seat — after Jay Collins was appointed to be the lieutenant governor.

The race is between Republican Josie Tomkow and Democrat Brian Nathan.

Dig deeper:

It's yet another test of whether Florida is immune to political winds that seem to be blowing in a Democratic direction.      

Florida bucked national trends in 2018 and 2022, when Democrats had successful years almost everywhere except Florida.

The district was won by President Trump by 7 points in 2024.               

But, in recent special elections, there have been double-digit flips in states like Texas and Georgia, in the direction of the Democrats.

"There's a reason that we have almost knocked 100,000 doors, and that is to make sure everyone goes out to vote," said Tomkow. "It is very important to make sure every single individual goes out tomorrow and is excited about an opportunity to vote, and I am asking all of those individuals for their support and hoping that I can earn that, but not taking any of that for granted."

Look Closer:

Both candidates knocked on doors Monday to get out the vote.               

Tomkow is a native of Tampa but represented Polk County in the state house from 2018 to 2025.               

She says she is in favor of property tax cuts championed by the governor, arguing that local governments would still have enough money to fund essential services like public safety and education.               

She says she will continue to push hard for other tax cuts and tax holidays, in hopes of easing Florida's affordability crisis.

"That's the main difference in this election," said Tomkow.

The backstory:

Democrat Brian Nathan is hoping to pull off an upset, saying that national winds are at his back.

"We do have a blue wave. There are some national dynamics that are playing out here. And that's why I just think this is different," said Nathan. 

The Navy Veteran and union organizer suspects that Floridians who are fed up with the cost of living will blame Republicans.               

He also says that the push to lower property taxes is a poison pill, because funding police, fire, roads and schools, in his view, will be much tougher.

"I have a different story than most of your particular candidates. They're not blue-collar workers. I'm a blue-collar worker," he said.

The district is an uphill battle for any Democratic candidate.

By the numbers:

Not only did it support Trump by seven points, but of registered voters, 39 percent are Republican and 31 percent are Democratic.               

It could come down to how NPA voters land, which is 27 percent of the district.               

As of Monday afternoon, when it comes to voters who have already voted, 5.6 percent more Republicans have voted than Democrats.

For voting locations, click here.

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