Will a tropical storm form in the Gulf this weekend?
Rain chances increase this weekend
FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber is still watching an area that has been highlighted by the National Hurricane Center in the Gulf. He said there is nothing there as of Thursday morning, but over the next few days, he will be watching for the potential of an area of low pressure developing and crossing the northeastern Gulf as we head into the weekend. It has a 20% chance of developing over the next seven days. He is also watching a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that is expected to head into an area that is not favorable for any development.
TAMPA, Fla. - Forecasters are watching a potential tropical disturbance in the northeastern Gulf that could bring heavy rain and flooding risks to Florida.
Atlantic tropical development potential
What we know:
A tropical wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized.
It is moving west-northwest and, according to the NHC, there is a chance for slow development over the next day or two. By the weekend it is expected to move into less conducive conditions and is not expected to develop further after the weekend.
The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing over the next week.
Gulf tropical development potential
Models continue to indicate there is a potential for an area of low pressure to form over the north-east Gulf off the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center says an area in the Gulf has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
The system is expected to move north-east and over the state over the weekend and move into the Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas.
Regardless of whether it organizes, the system will bring tropical downpours and increased moisture across Florida and parts of the Southeast. The low pressure area would form in the northeastern Gulf, where water temperatures are warm, ranging from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber states we are close to 7.50" below average on our rainfall in Tampa for the year. A weak area of low pressure or tropical system can be beneficial in helping to make up for the rainfall deficit we have been experiencing. Drought conditions continue over much of the state of Florida.
Weather factors and storm names
What we don't know:
Officials cannot yet confirm if the disturbance will overcome environmental hurdles like land interaction, wind shear and dry air. Computer models remain uncertain on how much this system will develop over the waters of the Gulf.
If it stays over the warm waters of the Gulf longer, it may give it additional time to organize. Interactions with land and wind shear will likely pose obstacles in further development.
To become a tropical system, it must develop a defined circulation with organized thunderstorms. If it reaches maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, it will become a tropical storm and be named Bertha.
The Source: The information in this story was gathered from FOX 13 meteorologist Jim Weber, who explained atmospheric model trends and National Hurricane Center outlooks.