NHC: Chance of tropical depression forming in Gulf at 80 percent

Image 1 of 2

The area of low pressure in Georgia is expected to travel into the Gulf of Mexico and begin some tropical development by Wednesday, predicts the National Hurricane Center

“It’s very odd for something to come from the southeast U.S. that’s on land out into the Gulf and develop,” says FOX 13’s meteorologist Dave Osterberg. “That is indeed going to likely be the case.”

This means rain will be the theme for Tampa Bay. The amount of rain – with the heaviest being along the coast – will be determined by where the trough develops. However, it is projected to begin moving west and away from the Bay Area, says FOX 13’s meteorologist Dave Osterberg. 

“It’s going to feast on the 88-degree waters here and begin some tropical development,” he explained. “The further away from us it moves the less of an impact it’s going to have on us.”

There is a 50 percent chance of development in two days, and an 80 percent chance in the next five days. Two weather computer models show the system will be near south Louisiana by Thursday night. By early Saturday morning, there could be tons of rain into south Louisiana, which could be a big problem for the state.

“This thing [could] just sit around for a few days and continues to rain from New Orleans to Lafayette,” Osterberg said. “As this drifts westward, then that impact focuses more on those folks.”

Before that, there will be an onshore wind flow, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to Tampa Bay.

“Meaning it can just rain at any time over the next few days,” Osterberg said

There is a 70 percent chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances lessening by the weekend. The coastal areas of the Bay Area could see up to three inches of rain by next Monday.