Tropical Storm Karen expected to loop around; may then move west

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Tropical storms Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo are all on the map today, along with an area of interest in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While it’s busy, there are no immediate threats to the United States.

Jerry, now a post-tropical cyclone, will slide just north of Bermuda over the next 24 hours. Impacts will be limited to a few tropical storm-force wind gusts and a few downpours.

Lorenzo is likely to become a major hurricane in the coming days over open ocean. It will pose no threat to land.

The disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula is unlikely to have significant development. It will move west toward eastern Mexico, bringing some pockets of heavy rain through the weekend.

That leaves us with Karen. The storm continues to struggle to maintain bursts of convection and further organize. There is a pretty good consensus about the forecast track over the next three to five days, with Karen moving north-northeast, getting blocked by the building ridge to the north, and then beginning a west-southwest motion this weekend. 

The storm’s intensity forecast remains the biggest question at this point, with multiple factors in play. Latest runs of the Euro and GFS suggest Karen will dissipate after beginning its move to the west, while others suggest the storm will maintain, if not intensify, during this part of its journey. 

At this point, we’re leaning toward the weaker solution, with the possibility of dissipation, given the moderate-high wind shear that should be in place over Florida and the Bahamas next week. That being said, you’ll still want to check back for any updates in the coming days.

LINK: Track the tropics on