Star 2016 pollster again predicts Trump will take Florida -- this time by wider margin

In 2016, FOX 13 pollster Matt Towery ranked among the most accurate in the nation through the primaries and the general election. On our newscast, he predicted Donald Trump would win the state of Florida five days before Election Day in 2016. 

After reviewing his polling and other data, Towery is predicting another close win for President Trump in Florida in 2020. 

“My final projection for Florida is Donald Trump will carry the state by at least a point, maybe a little better than he did last time -- maybe even getting closer to two points,” said Towery. 

He notes the similarity in Florida polling in 2016, Trump’s gains in the Miami area relative to 2016, and growth in his support among Latino and African American voters. 


Road to 270: Trump's best path to victory hinges on Florida and Pennsylvania

While Trump has multiple roads to victory, his most likely route hinges on winning two crucial battleground states: Florida and Pennsylvania.

“This is a very quickly moving situation,” Towery noted. “I might add one of the reasons Trump is performing better than many expected in Florida is we’re seeing him do better with Hispanic Latino populations than we expected. That’s one. 

"The other is African American.  In almost every state we polled, the African American vote is hitting at minimum 15%. I’ve never seen that in all the years I’ve polled. I’ve polled Florida and other states for more than 20 years, and in some of these states it’s above that. And I might say that’s an anomaly but when I start seeing it in battleground after battleground, there is something going on there. And that of course affects your overall vote, as well in Florida.”

Towery also cites Trump’s slight gains among young voters. While Joe Biden has gained support among seniors due to concerns over COVID 19, Trump has gained among young voters due to concerns about the job market and fears of future restrictions/closures. 


Democrats slightly ahead of Republicans in early voting in Florida

Out of 9 million ballots cast so far in Florida, 108,000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Elections officials expect about 2 million more voters to cast their ballots in person on Election Day.

In polling and assessing other battleground states, Towery is also projecting wins for Trump in Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. However, he is not making any projections for the Electoral College due to the close races in Pennsylvania and the upper Midwest.