Tampa Bay area home prices ranked among top 10 expected to dip in 2026

Home prices dip in several Tampa Bay area cities

Home prices are expected to decline in parts of the Tampa Bay region this year, with local markets ranking among those projected to see some of the biggest drops in the country. FOX 13's Genevieve Curtis reports. 

TAMPA, Fla. - Home prices are expected to decline in parts of the Tampa Bay region this year, with local markets ranking among those projected to see some of the biggest drops in the country.

Real estate analysts say falling prices, paired with a modest dip in mortgage rates, could improve affordability for buyers and help sellers whose homes have been sitting on the market.

What we know:

According to Realtor.com, homebuying momentum is expected to improve in 2026 after several challenging years.

"2026 is gonna be a year that housing looks to get back on track," said Jake Krimmel, a senior economist with the company.

RELATED: January is the cheapest month to buy a home; here's how much you could save

Realtor.com ranked U.S. cities by where home prices are projected to fall the most. Several of the top 10 are in the Tampa Bay area. 

The Sarasota–Bradenton area ranked second highest in the country, with prices projected to dip 8.9%. The St. Petersburg–Clearwater–Tampa metro ranked sixth, with a projected 3.6% decline.

What they're saying:

Local real estate agent Colleen Hockenberry, with Frank Albert Realty, says high inventory has been putting pressure on sellers, especially in fast-growing areas south of Tampa Bay.

"In Manatee County, you have builder after builder throwing up all these houses, and there’s not enough people to move down here," Hockenberry said.

She says some sellers have struggled so much that they’ve turned listings into rentals instead of selling.

Hockenberry says many buyers are still waiting for mortgage rates to return to around 3%, but that expectation could make it harder for many, including first-time buyers.

"When we had 3% rates, homes were going way above appraisal, people were waiving contingencies, and that’s what got us here," she said. "Now people are trying to sell at super high values because that’s what they owe the bank."

READ: These are the best real estate markets for retirees in 2026, data suggests

She believes the current mix of easing prices and slightly lower rates could offer a better balance, without the bidding wars that defined the last boom. 

What you can do:

For sellers, Hockenberry recommends patience and working with an experienced realtor who understands local market conditions.

For buyers, she says it’s important to talk with lenders about available programs, credits, or incentives that could make purchasing more affordable as the market shifts.

As Tampa Bay’s housing market recalibrates, experts say 2026 could mark a turning point, especially for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.