Longtime realtor expecting Tampa Bay area's housing market to stabilize in 2026

Bay Area housing market outlook for 2026

2026 could bring good news for home sellers and buyers. FOX 13’s Kylie Jones reports. 

TAMPA, Fla. - Some realtors in the Tampa Bay area are forecasting a stabilization in the housing market in 2026.

Since 2020, Tampa Bay has become a hot spot for people to move, causing what some realtors call a "frenzy" in the housing market.

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What we know:

Mia Annibale, a longtime realtor in the Tampa Bay area, said there was an aggressive, rapid appreciation in home values from 2020 to 2026. Homes were flying off the market, as people were flocking to the area.

Now, she said there's still a lot of inventory, but it's still below COVID-19 pandemic levels. She said some of that chaos could settle down this year.

"While there is all of this chatter about prices falling, the prices aren't really falling," Annibale said. "They're normalizing. We could not have kept up that rapid rate of appreciation."

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She said about 25% of her business comes from people who are relocating to the area.

"Tampa Bay is still one of the leaders in the Southeast market for luxury and new construction," Annibale said. "And those are two of the anchors that predict your market stability."

Annibale said affordability is still a weak spot, with it continuing to be a concern for buyers throughout the region. But, she said concessions made by sellers can help close some of those gaps in certain cases.

What can buyers expect? 

Annibale said one major benefit she expects buyers to see is that they have more time to buy. Several years ago, she said buyers would have hours to act on a home in order to not miss out on making an offer.

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"You're also seeing a lot of concessions," she said. "So, I would say a majority of my transactions, the buyers are getting some type of concession towards pre-payments, closing costs, discount points."

She said interest rates average around 6.2% in the region right now, but that is also dependent on the buyer, credit score and the type of loan. However, she said interest rates are expected to hold around 5-6%.

What can sellers expect? 

Annibale said there is still a lot of demand, so buyers are still poised to see a positive year in the market. She said the price, location and condition are the most important factors in selling a home.

"It may not move with 15 offers in five days like it would have been in 2022," she said. "But, it is still a good time to sell, given the amount of equity that homeowners have. Again, as long as they are presented well and priced correctly."

Annibale said new construction homes and properties that are waterfront or in walkable areas are in the highest demand.

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"In Tampa, walkability, Hyde Park, those are performing very, very well," she said. "Downtown St. Pete, Crescent Lake, Old Northeast."

Big picture view:

Annibale said the Tampa Bay housing market differs from that in many other cities around the country. She expects the area to continue seeing a high demand from buyers in 2026.

"There are a lot of people that think that there is this perfect moment," she said. "If you are in the market to buy and you can financially be able to do so, keep an eye out and do it when it makes sense for you."